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1 {- |
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2 Glicko2, as described in http://www.glicko.net/glicko/glicko2.pdf |
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3 -} |
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4 |
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5 module Main where |
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6 |
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7 --import Data.Map as Map |
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8 |
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9 data RatingData = RatingData { |
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10 ratingValue |
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11 , rD |
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12 , volatility :: Double |
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13 } |
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14 data GameData = GameData { |
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15 rating :: RatingData, |
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16 opponentRating :: RatingData, |
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17 gameScore :: Double |
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18 } |
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19 |
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20 τ, ε :: Double |
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21 τ = 0.3 |
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22 ε = 0.000001 |
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23 |
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24 g_φ :: Double -> Double |
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25 g_φ φ = 1 / sqrt (1 + 3 * φ^2 / pi^2) |
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26 |
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27 calcE :: GameData -> (Double, Double) |
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28 calcE (GameData oldRating oppRating s) = ( |
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29 1 / (1 + exp (g_φᵢ * (μᵢ - μ))) |
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30 , g_φᵢ |
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31 ) |
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32 where |
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33 μ = (ratingValue oldRating - 1500) / 173.7178 |
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34 φ = rD oldRating / 173.7178 |
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35 μᵢ = (ratingValue oppRating - 1500) / 173.7178 |
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36 φᵢ = rD oppRating / 173.7178 |
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37 g_φᵢ = g_φ φᵢ |
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38 |
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39 |
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40 calcNewRating :: [GameData] -> RatingData |
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41 calcNewRating [] = undefined |
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42 calcNewRating games@(GameData oldRating _ _ : _) = undefined |
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43 where |
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44 _Es = map calcE games |
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45 υ = 1 / sum (map υ_p _Es) |
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46 υ_p (_Eᵢ, g_φᵢ) = g_φᵢ ^ 2 * _Eᵢ * (1 - _Eᵢ) |
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47 _Δ = υ * sum (map _Δ_p $ zip _Es (map gameScore games)) |
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48 _Δ_p ((_Eᵢ, g_φᵢ), sᵢ) = g_φᵢ * (sᵢ - _Eᵢ) |
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49 |
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50 μ = (ratingValue oldRating - 1500) / 173.7178 |
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51 φ = rD oldRating / 173.7178 |
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52 σ = volatility oldRating |
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53 |
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54 a = log (σ ^ 2) |
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55 f :: Double -> Double |
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56 f x = exp x * (_Δ ^ 2 - φ ^ 2 - υ - exp x) / 2 / (φ ^ 2 + υ + exp x) ^ 2 - (x - a) / τ ^ 2 |
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57 |
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58 _A = a |
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59 _B = if _Δ ^ 2 > φ ^ 2 + υ then log (_Δ ^ 2 - φ ^ 2 - υ) else head . dropWhile ((>) 0 . f) . map (\k -> a - k * τ) $ [1 ..] |
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60 fA = f _A |
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61 fB = f _B |
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62 σ' = (\(_A, _, _, _) -> exp (_A / 2)) . head . dropWhile (\(_A, _, _B, _) -> abs (_B - _A) > ε) $ iterate step5 (_A, fA, _B, fB) |
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63 step5 (_A, fA, _B, fB) = let _C = _A + (_A - _B) * fA / (fB - fA); fC = f _C in |
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64 if fC * fB < 0 then (_B, fB, _C, fC) else (_A, fA / 2, _C, fC) |
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65 |
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66 |
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67 main = undefined |